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Example 22
In the table of fit measures, the column that was labeled BIC0 is now labeled BICp and
contains Bayes factors scaled so that they sum to 1.
With equal prior probabilities for the models and using a particular prior distribution
of the parameters of each separate model (Raftery, 1995; Schwarz, 1978), BICp values
are approximate posterior probabilities. Model 7 is the correct model with probability
0.860. One can be 99% sure that the correct model is among Models 7, 6, and 8 (0.860
+ 0.069 + 0.065 = 0.99). The p subscript is a reminder that BICp values can be
interpreted as probabilities.