Forecasting Based on History

2QH￿PHWKRG￿RI￿IRUHFDVWLQJ￿VDOHV￿￿PDQXIDFWXULQJ￿UDWHV￿￿RU￿H[SHQVHV￿LV￿ UHYLHZLQJ￿KLVWRULFDO￿WUHQGV￿￿2QFH￿\RX￿KDYH￿KLVWRULFDO￿GDWD￿￿WKH￿GDWD￿DUH￿ILW￿ WR￿D￿FXUYH￿WKDW￿KDV￿WLPH￿RQ￿WKH￿[￿D[LV￿DQG￿TXDQWLW\￿RQ￿WKH￿\￿D[LV￿

Example. *LYHQ￿WKH￿IROORZLQJ￿VDOHV￿GDWD￿￿ZKDW￿DUH￿WKH￿VDOHV￿HVWLPDWHV￿IRU￿ \HDUV￿VL[￿DQG￿VHYHQ"

YearSales $

1

 

10,000

2

 

11,210

3

 

13,060

4

 

16,075

5

 

20,590

Keys:

Display:

Description:

*j

0.00

&OHDUV￿VWDWLVWLFV￿UHJLVWHUV￿

￿0￿￿￿￿￿A

1.00

(QWHUV￿ILUVW￿\HDU￿DQG￿VDOHV￿

 

 

IRU￿WKDW￿\HDU￿

￿0￿￿￿￿￿A

2.00

(QWHUV￿VHFRQG￿\HDU·V￿GDWD￿

￿0￿￿￿￿￿A

3.00

&RQWLQXHV￿GDWD￿HQWU\￿

￿0￿￿￿￿￿A

4.00

 

￿0￿￿￿￿￿A

5.00

 

￿*4

22,000.50

(VWLPDWHV￿VDOHV￿IRU￿\HDU￿

 

 

VL[￿

￿*4

24,605.00

(VWLPDWHV￿VDOHV￿IRU￿\HDU￿

 

 

VHYHQ￿
96 8: Additional Examples