HP 12C specification

	00	171,393.33	3-month average for March.
	00
131760		144,790.00	3-month average for April.
131760
300500		207,440.00	3-month average for May.
300500
271120		234,460.00	3-month average for June.
271120

Seasonal Variation Factors Based on Centered Moving Averages.

Seasonal variation factors are useful concepts in many types of forecasting. There are several methods of developing seasonal moving averages, on the of more common ways being to calculate them as a ration of the periodic value to a centered moving average for the same period.

For instance, to determine the sales for the 3rd quarter of a given year a centered moving average for that quarter would be calculated from sales figures from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of the year and the 1st quarter of the following year. The seasonal variation factor for that 3rd quarter would then be the ration of the actual sales in the 3rd quarter to the centered moving average for that quarter.

While quarterly seasonal variations are commonly used, the HP 12C can also be programmed to calculate monthly seasonal variations using a centered 12 month moving averages. Programs for both of these calculations are represented here:

An HP 12C program to calculate the quarterly seasonal variations based on a centered 4-point moving average is:

KEYSTROKES		DISPLAY

CLEAR	00-
1	01-	45	1
2	02-		2
	03-		10

2	04-	45	2
1	05-	44	1
	06-		40

3	07-	45	3

76

Image 77

HP 12C manual Seasonal Variation Factors Based on Centered Moving Averages

Contents

Page Introduction Refinancing Real Estate Wrap-Around Mortgage PMT Rate of return to lender Cash flow occurs 39 timesFinal cash flow Number of periods and monthly Derivation of these cash flows follows a set sequence Income Property Cash Flow AnalysisBefore-Tax Cash Flows Derivation of these reversions are as follows Vacancy LossBefore-Tax Reversions Resale Proceeds After-Tax Cash Flows Keystrokes Display 30-43 33-44 35-43 40-44 42-45 48-44 53-44 Registers 3291.75 ATCF1 After-Tax Net Cash Proceeds of Resale 18-44 33-44 39-44 48-43 Key in the number of years after purchase and press Atncpr Loan Reduction Schedule LendingLoan With a Constant Amount Paid Towards Principal Add-On Interest Rate Converted to APR APR Converted to Add-On Interest Rate Add-On Rate Loan with Credit Life Page 53-43 77-45 78-43 PMT PMT Credit life Interest Rebate Rule of 78s 26-43 Graduated Payment Mortgages Keystrokes Display 34-44 38-43 39-43 68-44 69-44 72-43 73-43 77-43 Keystrokes Display Variable Rate Mortgages Keystrokes Display Skipped Payments Group of payments is skipped Initial Deposit with Periodic Deposits Savings Periodic Deposits and Withdrawals FV = ? Cash flow diagram looks like this PV = Savings Account Compounded Daily Keystrokes Display 27-44 37-43 Compounding Periods Different From Payment Periods Clear 519.61 Future value Lease vs. Purchase Investment Analysis 16-44 18-44 27-44 30-45 32-45 34-45 Instructions Year Maintenance Lease Payment Tax Credit Buy Back 200 1700 1000 1500 300 750 Break-Even Analysis Profit To calculate the gross profit at a given volume Find the gross profit if 2500 units are sold 04-43 09-43 15-43 23-43 Gross Profit Operating Leverage 10-43 Profit and Loss Analysis 11-43 28-43 37-43 42-43 47-43 Page 100.00 48% tax rate Manufacturing cost $ After-Tax Yield Securities Purchase price Discounted Notes 30-43 Settl. date Maturity dtae Simple Moving Average Forecasting Keystrokes Display 26-45 29-45 30-44 32-45 33-44 Unused PV Unused PMT Unused FV Unused R .4 Unused 12-43 Seasonal Variation Factors Based on Centered Moving Averages 25-43 Sales in $K Quarterly 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 98.86 99.95 99.41 1st quarter average seasonal Variation, % 02-2 28-45 31-45 32-44 34-45 35-44 37-45 38-44 Gompertz Curve Trend Analysis 02-44 05-44 08-44 10-44 12-43 Page 71-43 Year III Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing 07-44 Page Forecasting Selecting the best smoothing constant α 22.00 23.00 23.25 25.25 23.69 27.13 25.95 Procedure is repeated for several αs Markup and Margin Calculations Pricing Calculations 02-43 14-43 Calculations of List and Net prices With Discounts 100 10.51 3rd discount rate % 05-44 06-43 16-43 Page Exponential Curve Fit StatisticsCurve Fitting 100 101 102 Logarithmic Curve Fit 104 Power Curve Fit Formula that best expresses h as a function of t is Standard Error of the Mean Mean, Standard Deviation, Standard Error for Grouped Data 108 Use the following HP-12C program for the previous example 109 Chi-Square Statistics 111 112 Normal Distribution 114 Relative error less than 0.042% over the range 0 xReference 115 116 117 CovarianceExample Find Qx for x = 1.18 and x = 118 Try the previous example using the following HP-12C program Permutation 120 121 Combination 122 Random Number Generator 123 Example Generate a sequence of 5 random numbers 124 Personal FinanceHomeowners Monthly Payment Estimator 125 Following HP-12C program may be used instead of the above 126 Example Solve the previous example using the HP-12C programWhat if the down payment is increased to 20%? 127 Tax-Free Individual Retirement IRA of Keogh Plan 128 129 Stock Portfolio Evaluation and Analysis 131 132 133 134 Example Evaluate the following portfolio 135 136 Canadian MortgagesPeriodic Payment Amount Effective Interest Rate Yield Number of Periodic Payments to Fully Amortize a MortgageBalance Remaining at End of Specified Period 137 138 139 MiscellaneousLearning Curve for Manufacturing Costs 140 141 142 143 Queuing and Waiting Theory Intensity factor 145 146 147 148 149 Real Estate AppendixWrap-Around Mortgage 150 Loans with a constant amount paid towards Principal LendingAdd-On Interest Rate to APR Add-On to APR with Credit Life Rule of 78s Rebate SavingsSkipped Payments 152 Compounding Periods Different From Payment Periods Investment AnalysisLease vs. Purchase Break-Even Analysis and Operating Leverage Forecasting SecuritiesProfit and Loss Analysis Discounted Notes Price given discount rate 155 Simple Moving AverageGompertz Curve Trend Analysis 156 Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing Forecast of next period expected usage Pricing CalculationsMarkup and Margin Calculations 157 158 159 StatisticsCalculations of List and Net Prices with Discounts 160 Tax-Free Retirement Account IRA or Keogh Plan Personal FinanceFor ordinary taxable investment For tax-free investment Miscellaneous Canadian MortgagesPortfolio beta coefficient Learning Curve for Manufacturing Cost 163 Queuing and Waiting TheoryGraduated Payment Mortgage + C 164