
| 4 | 23.61 |
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| Σ | 2 |
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| Cumulative error ( | e ). | |||
| 0 | 0.50 |
| Smoothing constant (a). | |||
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| 2 | 25.11 |
| Smoothing average | |||
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| 3 | 0.42 |
| Trend |
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| 6 | 25.95 |
| Last forecast (Dt+1). | |||
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The procedure is repeated for several α's. |
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| Smoothing Constant (α) | .5 .1 | .25 | .2 |
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| Cumulative Error (Σe2) | 23.61 | 25.14 | 17.01 18.03 | |||
| For the selected α = .25 | St+1= 24.28 |
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| Dt+1= 25.64 |
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Forecasting: |
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| Keystrokes | Display |
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CLEAR | 0.00 |
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1 |
| 1.00 |
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.25 | 0 | 0.75 |
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| 1 | 0.75 |
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24.28 | 2 | 24.28 |
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.34 | 3 | 0.34 |
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25.64 | 6 | 25.64 |
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26 |
| 0.36 |
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| 26.16 |
| Forecast for month 9, ( t+1). | |||
| 5 | 25.80 |
| Expected usage for current (month | |||
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| 8) period, (Smoothed Dt). | |||||
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| 0 | 0.25 |
| α |
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| 2 | 24.71 |
| Record for initial values when | |||
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| 3 | 0.36 |
| month 9 actual figures become | |||
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| available. |
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| 6 | 26.16 |
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Note: At least 4 periods of current data should be entered before forecasting is attempted.
92