Procedure is repeated for several αs | HP 12C specs

	4	23.61				Σ	2
	4			Cumulative error (			e ).
	0	0.50		Smoothing constant (a).
	0
	2	25.11		Smoothing average (St-1).
	2
	3	0.42		Trend (Tt-1).
	3
	6	25.95		Last forecast (Dt+1).
	6
The procedure is repeated for several α's.
	Smoothing Constant (α)		.5 .1		.25	.2
	Cumulative Error (Σe2)		23.61		25.14	17.01 18.03
	For the selected α = .25		St+1= 24.28
			Tt-1= 0.34
			Dt+1= 25.64
Forecasting:

	Keystrokes	Display
CLEAR		0.00
CLEAR
1		1.00
1
.25	0	0.75
.25	0
	1	0.75
	1
24.28	2	24.28
24.28	2
.34	3	0.34
.34	3
25.64	6	25.64
25.64	6
26		0.36
26
		26.16		Forecast for month 9, ( t+1).
	5	25.80		Expected usage for current (month
		25.80		8) period, (Smoothed Dt).
				8) period, (Smoothed Dt).
	0	0.25		α
	0
	2	24.71		Record for initial values when
	2			Record for initial values when
	3	0.36		month 9 actual figures become
	3			available.
	6	26.16		available.
		26.16

Note: At least 4 periods of current data should be entered before forecasting is attempted.

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Image 93

HP 12C manual Procedure is repeated for several αs

Contents

Page Introduction Refinancing Real Estate Wrap-Around Mortgage PMT Cash flow occurs 39 times Final cash flowRate of return to lender Number of periods and monthly Income Property Cash Flow Analysis Before-Tax Cash FlowsDerivation of these cash flows follows a set sequence Vacancy Loss Before-Tax Reversions Resale ProceedsDerivation of these reversions are as follows After-Tax Cash Flows Keystrokes Display 30-43 33-44 35-43 40-44 42-45 48-44 53-44 Registers 3291.75 ATCF1 After-Tax Net Cash Proceeds of Resale 18-44 33-44 39-44 48-43 Key in the number of years after purchase and press Atncpr Lending Loan With a Constant Amount Paid Towards PrincipalLoan Reduction Schedule Add-On Interest Rate Converted to APR APR Converted to Add-On Interest Rate Add-On Rate Loan with Credit Life Page 53-43 77-45 78-43 PMT PMT Credit life Interest Rebate Rule of 78s 26-43 Graduated Payment Mortgages Keystrokes Display 34-44 38-43 39-43 68-44 69-44 72-43 73-43 77-43 Keystrokes Display Variable Rate Mortgages Keystrokes Display Skipped Payments Group of payments is skipped Initial Deposit with Periodic Deposits Savings Periodic Deposits and Withdrawals FV = ? Cash flow diagram looks like this PV = Savings Account Compounded Daily Keystrokes Display 27-44 37-43 Compounding Periods Different From Payment Periods Clear 519.61 Future value Lease vs. Purchase Investment Analysis 16-44 18-44 27-44 30-45 32-45 34-45 Instructions Year Maintenance Lease Payment Tax Credit Buy Back 200 1700 1000 1500 300 750 Break-Even Analysis Profit To calculate the gross profit at a given volume Find the gross profit if 2500 units are sold 04-43 09-43 15-43 23-43 Gross Profit Operating Leverage 10-43 Profit and Loss Analysis 11-43 28-43 37-43 42-43 47-43 Page 100.00 48% tax rate Manufacturing cost $ After-Tax Yield Securities Purchase price Discounted Notes 30-43 Settl. date Maturity dtae Simple Moving Average Forecasting Keystrokes Display 26-45 29-45 30-44 32-45 33-44 Unused PV Unused PMT Unused FV Unused R .4 Unused 12-43 Seasonal Variation Factors Based on Centered Moving Averages 25-43 Sales in $K Quarterly 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 98.86 99.95 99.41 1st quarter average seasonal Variation, % 02-2 28-45 31-45 32-44 34-45 35-44 37-45 38-44 Gompertz Curve Trend Analysis 02-44 05-44 08-44 10-44 12-43 Page 71-43 Year III Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing 07-44 Page Forecasting Selecting the best smoothing constant α 22.00 23.00 23.25 25.25 23.69 27.13 25.95 Procedure is repeated for several αs Markup and Margin Calculations Pricing Calculations 02-43 14-43 Calculations of List and Net prices With Discounts 100 10.51 3rd discount rate % 05-44 06-43 16-43 Page Statistics Curve FittingExponential Curve Fit 100 101 102 Logarithmic Curve Fit 104 Power Curve Fit Formula that best expresses h as a function of t is Standard Error of the Mean Mean, Standard Deviation, Standard Error for Grouped Data 108 Use the following HP-12C program for the previous example 109 Chi-Square Statistics 111 112 Normal Distribution Relative error less than 0.042% over the range 0 x Reference114 115 116 Covariance Example Find Qx for x = 1.18 and x =117 118 Try the previous example using the following HP-12C program Permutation 120 121 Combination 122 Random Number Generator 123 Example Generate a sequence of 5 random numbers Personal Finance Homeowners Monthly Payment Estimator124 125 Following HP-12C program may be used instead of the above Example Solve the previous example using the HP-12C program What if the down payment is increased to 20%?126 127 Tax-Free Individual Retirement IRA of Keogh Plan 128 129 Stock Portfolio Evaluation and Analysis 131 132 133 134 Example Evaluate the following portfolio 135 Canadian Mortgages Periodic Payment Amount136 Effective Interest Rate Yield Number of Periodic Payments to Fully Amortize a MortgageBalance Remaining at End of Specified Period 137 138 Miscellaneous Learning Curve for Manufacturing Costs139 140 141 142 143 Queuing and Waiting Theory Intensity factor 145 146 147 148 149 Real Estate AppendixWrap-Around Mortgage 150 Loans with a constant amount paid towards Principal LendingAdd-On Interest Rate to APR Add-On to APR with Credit Life Rule of 78s Rebate SavingsSkipped Payments 152 Compounding Periods Different From Payment Periods Investment AnalysisLease vs. Purchase Break-Even Analysis and Operating Leverage Forecasting SecuritiesProfit and Loss Analysis Discounted Notes Price given discount rate Simple Moving Average Gompertz Curve Trend Analysis155 156 Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing Forecast of next period expected usage Pricing CalculationsMarkup and Margin Calculations 157 158 Statistics Calculations of List and Net Prices with Discounts159 160 Tax-Free Retirement Account IRA or Keogh Plan Personal FinanceFor ordinary taxable investment For tax-free investment Miscellaneous Canadian MortgagesPortfolio beta coefficient Learning Curve for Manufacturing Cost Queuing and Waiting Theory Graduated Payment Mortgage163 + C 164